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What is it with all these fancy casinos from Las Vegas in the U. One is bigger and more impressive than the other as you take in the awesome view driving down the Strip or set foot in Macau after getting off the ferry from Hong Kong. Well, the secret to their success is their edge. The casinos know that they have a statistical edge, which over time will bring them riches.
The vast majority of players lose, and the longer they play, the more the casinos win. That is why they are always happy to spin the wheel, deal you a new hand or let you roll the dice. In this article we look at the way casinos operate and how we can structure our trading day to only play when the probabilities are heavily stacked in our favour. It seems impossible, right? Well, Don states in the article that he did not just walk into any casino and start playing like most folks do.
He won all that money by understanding the probabilities and by negotiating the terms of the game. After the terms had been agreed the house edge was just a fraction better than 50 percent but with the discount on any loss, Don was in fact only risking 80 cents on the dollar. That is a great edge and on the hands when the odds were tilted in his favour he pressed his luck for all he was worth.
If there is one thing we as traders can learn from Don it is to make sure we only trade whenever the odds are in our favour. We do that by trading the currency pair which carries the lowest cost in relation to its average true range ATR with the broker who offers the tightest spread. The ATR is a measure of volatility and a very reliable indicator of how big a range we can expect to see during a trading day. So which currency pair makes the most sense to trade? Dollars when they went on vacation or bought something online.
Most also have an idea of what they think the U. Dollar is worth. There is a fitting analogy between the two different versions of roulette and FX spreads that will help decide which of the crosses to trade if your only motive is to keep costs at a minimum. A roulette wheel has 18 red squares and 18 black squares. The difference lies in the number of green squares.
In American roulette, there are two green squares, 0 and In European roulette there is only one green square, 0. That gives the European wheel a house advantage of 2. So which one would you play? The answer, of course, is none because the probabilities of winning are not on your side and you would be guaranteed to lose if you only stayed long enough. But if you had to try your luck at one of them then surely you would choose the European roulette wheel because your disadvantage is not as bad as playing the American one.
The former has in the last days moved an average of 97 pips a day and typically has a 1. So you give up 1. One of the great things about the FX market is that it is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. The flip side is that it preys on compulsive gamblers and keeps the uneducated glued at the screens for far longer than is conducive to disciplined trading. It is therefore really important to know at what time of the day your preferred FX pair is most active.
Lose track of time and you lose sight of your goals. By the way, did you ever wonder why there are no clocks up on the walls in casinos? That is because they want you to forget about time and overstay your welcome. The longer one stays the less disciplined the decision making tends to get. People will anchor their self-worth to the dollar amount at which they were most profitable and if the stack of chips start to dwindle they will promise themselves to try to make back what they have lost and then quit.
It quickly turns into a game of revenge and usually ends with a player losing everything. Not only are you tired but you are now resorting to bets you would otherwise not have played. In order to be successful we need to understand the importance of the hour global nature of the markets.
We have then calculated the average movement for the pair in the past days in these three different time zones. This session has the least liquidity and market makers tend to widen the spread significantly during these hours. The range of this session will serve as a pivot for the remainder of the European session. This session has the most liquidity, the tightest spreads and is divided into six trade zones illustrated in chart 1. During the U. When there is still room for profits we will stay the course but never enter a trade after On occasions when we keep trades open overnight it is because the day closed on a really strong or extremely weak note and we expect follow-through ahead of the London open.
Knowing by how much the pair typically moves in the U. We trade minute candles because most economic data is released either at the bottom or at the top of the hour. If economic data surprises in either direction the market will quickly discount that information and we want to trade the imbalances in supply and demand as the market adjusts to the new reality. Trading minute candles we have never missed an opportunity to trade the news and it has never failed at signalling any bigger intraday trend.
Trade zone 1 is between — and most of the time when we see the wick of the daily candle drawn. On most days we will stand down during this time segment to see how the opening flows resolve themselves. However, we will buy the market any time after if the lows of the Asian session have been tested and rejected followed by a quick reversal candle that takes out the high of the range. By the same token, we will sell the market if the highs are tested and rejected followed by a move through the lows of the overnight range.
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|Forex 100 pips strategy game||When Fundamental and Technical Analysis Align. If the price goes down again without reaching any TP, then continue anticipating with a Sell Stop order for 1. One of the great things about the FX market is that it is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Once the ball starts rolling it will attract fresh blood as new money joins the fray. Pips fibonacci retracement levels how setting indicator as the main. Moment with dukascopy tv news strategy.|
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