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Trading Tools. Figures for May had headline retail sales up 0. There is downside risk to the release from weaker vehicle sales for the month and continued sluggish growth in chain store sales. This follows May figures that had the headline up 0. The June PPI was up 0. August The European calendar is relatively quiet today, with only the U.
RBA Cuts rates by 25bp to a record low 1. The RBA report their quarterly forecast update on Friday. Japan: Consumer confidence has slipped again, from Also due today is PM Abe fiscal stimulus announcement. Yet, we also saw a surprisingly weak round of Q2 construction spending figures that trimmed our Q3 GDP growth estimate to 2.
We saw June construction drops in every major component except home improvement, after widespread downward bumps in both April and May. Fresh selling can be expected under there, with stop loss orders noted. Technically the key 50 and DMA have been broken. This follows respective May figures which had income up 0.
Vehicle sales plunged in June but the employment report and aggregate income measure were both stronger, lending some upside risk to the release. UK home ownership now at 35 year lows as demand out strips supply and generation rent continue to enter the market. Date : 4th August Risk appetite is returning as U. The BoE also releases its updated inflation report, while the ECB publishes the latest economic bulletin.
The calendar is quiet otherwise, with only a French bond sale and unemployment data for Greece. He projects growth in the 1. The natural rate of unemployment is around 4. He doubts the labor market will generate much inflationary pressure. Evans is a long-time dove, but is not a voter this year.
The much larger than expected draw in RBOB gasoline inventories resulted in that contract rallying overnight. Other policy measures are possible, though we and most expect the QE program to left in a dormant state, and remain at GBP bln of total of assets accumulated between and The BoE has already been injecting liquidity into the banking system. Todays could be particularly spikey if the Bank is seen not been as assertive as has been widely touted.
Date : 5th August Stock markets moved broadly higher in Asia overnight, with Japanese markets the notable exception. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, as well as U. The FTSE led consequential gains in European equity markets, while the pound tumbled by more than 1. UK corporate bond yields also dove sharply on news that a portion of new QE purchases will be in investment-grade corporate issues, which is a first for the BoE.
The Old Lady of Threadneedle Street cut the repo to a new record low of 0. US Data Reports: Revealed modestly stronger than expected factory orders thanks to firmness in nondurable shipments and orders alongside minor orders and equipment tweaks in the durables data. Yet, weak inventories trimmed our Q2 GDP growth estimate to 1. We still peg Q3 GDP growth at 2. The futures market, however, is also being impacted by the rally in Treasuries.
The impending October 14 deadline on money market reforms, as well as the November 8 presidential election are key factors that will limit Fed action at the September 20, 21, and November 1, 2 FOMC meetings. Growth and inflation should have risen enough by the December 13, 14 policy meeting to enable the Fed to get back on the normalization path. Earnings growth has remained stubbornly low, expectation are again for 0. Date : 9th August Released overnight, U. BRC retail sales came in much stronger than expected see more below.
He believes a more gradual approach should be taken towards monetary policy as information of how the economy has reacted to the June 23 referendum is still very limited. McCafferty has previously opposed raising the target for quantitative easing government bond purchases.
Cable broke the key psychological level of 1. Data Reports: Chinese inflation fell to 1. The BRC noted that nothing materially changed for households in the month after the Brexit vote, while summer sales helped entice consumers to spend after a weather-affected 0.
June data meant the sa trade surplus widened to EUR This is nominal data of course, which also reflects exchange rate and oil price developments, but nevertheless, the numbers point to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the second quarter, which should help to compensate for the disappointing production drop.
Unit labour costs are expected to be 1. The first release on Q2 GDP revealed a subdued headline of 1. US Wholesale Trade — June wholesale trade data is also out today and should show a 0. This would follow respective May figures of 0.
Date : 30th August The calendar is heating up today, with the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator, see below as well as preliminary Aug inflation data from Spain and Germany. The Yen still in focus:. The government is ready to take decisive steps against excessive fx moves.
Earlier data releases that although better than expected unemployment at 21 year low of 3. Even more stimulus to be expected which may be enough to flip USDJPY into buy the dip mode, from sell the rally seen for the past couple of weeks. The concurrent dip in implied rates is suggesting second thoughts about the likelihood of a September rate hike. Dec is still showing about a Mondays PCE price data helped assuage fears for Fed action next month, as the inflation rate continues to disappoint.
Meanwhile, there are potential headwinds to the August jobs report, especially from the auto sector, and a tame report would also lessen the potential for an imminent hike. We still believe December is the better bet. But the latter also showed that the manufacturing sector is feeling the sting from the Brexit fallout and the stronger EUR and the German Ifo slumped.
Against that that background there are expectations that there will be a slip in the August ESI economic confidence indicator to US Consumer Confidence August consumer confidence is out today and should reveal a slight headline decline to Other measures of confidence have been mixed so far in August with Michigan Sentiment falling to Date : 31st August The European calendar has more August inflation data, with the overall Eurozone number now seen steady at 0.
German unemployment is also seen steady in August, while the July Eurozone unemployment rate is expected to fall to The USD takes centre stage: The dollar has held firm while the yen has continued to underperform. Yesterday the pair broke and closed above the day moving average at The weaker yen has been tonic for Japanese stock markets. Cable has also remained heavy, on net, with a bounce after an above-forecast reading of the August Gfk UK consumer confidence survey failing to sustain.
At -7, this is the second lowest in over two years, while the UK Lloyds business confidence survey fell to a near five-year low of 16 in August, down from 29 in July. The Michigan sentiment index fell to The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index has risen slightly to a Confidence faces an ongoing lift from low gasoline prices, stock market and home price gains, and an expected GDP bounce in the second half of as the inventory unwind and petro-hit to factories diminishes.
Yet, confidence faces a political headwind from the highly negative and unsettling tone of the U. In January he concluded that four hikes this year were probable, which obviously has yet to be met. The next round of Fedspeak will be from doves Rosengren and Evans, who will take part in a closed panel discussion from China ahead of the US open Wednesday, while moderate Kashkari talks about the role of the Fed board. The temporary halt to oil sands production and the impact on related services that was due to the Fort McMurray wildfire will factor in the Q2 GDP fall.
Also, real exports plunged Real GDP is expected to rebound 4. With confidence indicators showing that especially the manufacturing sector is waking up to the risks of the Brexit scenario and the impact of drop of the Pound against the EUR, the data will add to the arguments of the doves ahead of the September ECB meeting.
September Date : 1st September Mainland Chinese bourses meanwhile were in the red. Loggerheads between Saudi and Iran, who has insisted on bringing its production back to pre-sanction levels, will likely result in no agreement to cap output. A solid NFP outcome on Friday will up the odds for a September Fed rate hike, which would likely weigh heavily on gold prices. For producer sentiment, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to slip to 51 from 52 in July but a lower 50 in May and June.
The ADP gain signals slight upside risk for our k August payroll estimate, given the 20k downside bias in as-reported ADP, alongside upside risk from tight claims and producer sentiment, but downside auto sector risk as sales drop to the These comments came from a video interview in which he reiterated calls for too-big-to-fail reforms and said monetary policy is a blunt tool, but offered little else on rate hike timing per se.
Already released measures of producer sentiment for August have been weaker so one to watch at GMT. US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week of August 27 is out Thursday and should reveal a headline increase to k median k from k in the week prior and k before that. More broadly, we expect claims to set a higher average in August at k from k in July. This supports our nonfarm payrolls forecast which we currently have at k with a 4.
Date : 6th September Oil prices are higher on the day and the front end WTI future climbed further above USD 45 per barrel, but gains are capped by concerns that stocks indices may be approaching overbought levels. BRC retail sales came in much weaker than expected with the like-for-like reading down A lack of specifics about how output might be restricted apparently led to the rally fizzing out, and prices retreating.
German July manufacturing orders rose 0. Still, the Interestingly though, the breakdown showed a marked rebound in foreign orders inflow, which suggests Brexit and the weaker Pound are not to blame. Domestic orders meanwhile dropped The August Philly Fed index rose to 2. Date : 7th September The ASX, which underperformed yesterday, moved higher as the Aussie weakened as growth slowed down in the second quarter. The weak German production figures see below will only add to the Bund move. The European calendar has U.
FX Summary: The dollar has continued to ebb as Fed expectations cycled back towards the no-case-for-a-September hike following weaker than expected ISM services and LMCI data yesterday, which resonated with the sub-forecast jobs report on Friday. USD-JPY, which has continued to pace broader dollar declines, descended for a third straight session, logging a day low at The pair has breached below the day moving average, at Cable settled slightly below the eight-week peak it saw yesterday, at 1.
German July industrial production dropped In fact this was the steepest decline in almost 2 years. The correction may partly reflect the usual volatility over the summer, as school holidays in Germany are staggered throughout the states and differently timed every year, which means different timings for the industrial rich states can distort data. Still, with the orders trend also disappointing, and manufacturing sentiment coming off, the data adds to signs that the German economy is cooling.
The cautiously optimistic outlook on growth and inflation is expected to remain, as the Q2 GDP report was consistent with an expected rebound in Q3 GDP. Date : 12th September The MBA mortgage market applications survey is due Wednesday , along with import prices seen unchanged and export prices On tap next is August retail sales Thursday , forecast to rise 0. Also due is August PPI, expected to rise just 0. The Philly Fed index is set to rebound to 3.
Initial jobless claims are projected to snap back 11k to k , with August industrial production to shrink 0. Business inventories are forecast to fall 0. August CPI is seen rising 0. Canada: Economic data is highlighted by manufacturing Friday , which is expected to reveal a 1. Europe: After the initial confidence data following the Brexit referendum looked surprisingly upbeat, the August round was disappointing and markets will be watching the German September ZEW release Tuesday closely.
We are looking for an improvement to 3. Even core inflation at 0. ECB President Draghi speaks at an award ceremony on Tuesday, although the central bank head is unlikely to add much to the central message conveyed at his September policy statement. Our view matches the strong consensus for a no-change announcement, which would leave the repo rate at 0.
Data on the calendar this week is highlighted by August inflation numbers Tuesday , employment figures covering July and August Wednesday , and official August retail sales Thursday. We expect headline CPI to tick up to a cycle high of 0. The laggard official unemployment rate for July is expected to remain unchanged at 4. Retail sales are seen dipping 0. China: August foreign direct investment figures are tentatively due Monday, followed by August industrial production Tuesday , which is expected to inch up to 6.
August retail sales Tuesday are penciled in at August fixed investment Tuesday is seen slowing to a 7. The all-industry index is reported as well. July revised industrial production Wednesday is seen unchanged at 0. Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia fields three speakers this week. August employment Thursday is expected to improve September edited September Date : 19th September And the likely divergent policy outcomes will be key for market direction heading into Q4. It is highly unlikely the FOMC will resume its rate hike regime this week give the disappointing data on jobs, retail sales, and manufacturing, amid a still low inflation environment.
A light data calendar will play second fiddle to the Fed. Housing reports will dominate. August housing starts Tuesday are projected falling to a 1. Existing home sales Thursday should bounce 1. Fedspeak will remain in blackout mode until Friday when Harker, Mester, Lockhart and Kaplan all have speaking engagements, however, it is unlikely anyone will break ranks and say much about policy the policy decision on Wednesday. Total CPI Friday is seen expanding at a 1.
Retail sales Friday are anticipated to rise 0. Wholesale shipments Wednesday are seen rising 0. Expectations are for a slight dip in the manufacturing PMI to Other data releases include Eurozone current account, as well as German producer price inflation, which is expected to continue to move up from lows, but to still remain firmly in negative territory.
UK: The calendar is pretty quiet this week, highlighted by the CBI industrial trends survey for September Thursday , where the forecast is for an unchanged -5 reading in the headline total orders figure. Monthly government borrowing data is also up Wednesday , as is the Rightmove house price index for September. Longer-term Brexit-related concerns have been sharpening over the last week, which culminated in sterling plunging on Friday.
The pound finished the day with a 1. China: There are no scheduled data releases from China this week. The policy outcome is of considerable uncertainty and of much debate. Data will be of moderate consequence. The July all-industry index Friday is expected to rise 0. Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the September meeting Tuesday , when policymakers held rates steady at 1.
There are no bank officials scheduled to speak this week. The data calendar is thin, with the just the Q2 house price index due Tuesday. Date : 20th September The Nikkei closed down The bullish sentiment on European stock markets yesterday that was underpinned by hopes that the BoJ could add some stimulus and a pick up in oil prices, already fizzled out in the later U.
The European calendar is virtually empty. Cost pressures and wage growth set to remain low and little change expected in unemployment in coming months. Slightly softer than hoped and not good news for ECB. The range has been from 58 to 65, and over the past ten years has ranged from 65 to 34 over the past decade. The future sales index also rose to 71 from The index of prospective buyer traffic improved to 48 from All four regions posted gains, led by the West which soared to 82 from Consensus expectations are the Fed will refrain from easing, while there are some expectations that the BoJ to trim its Past BoJ easing measures in the Abenomics era have generally failed to weaken the yen, and the central bank would have to be aggressive if it wants a weaker currency.
There are expectations for a further cut in deposit rate and an expansion of the QE asset purchasing facility. However, in recent days there has also been market chatter that the BOJ may be concerned about the sustainability of its current stimulus programme. There is little chance of a rate hike this week. The lack of any indication from the FOMC that another tightening is on the way is one of the main factors suggesting policy will be left on hold for now.
Date : 21st September It left the 0. Whether the new framework will general sustained yen weakness remains to be seen. He noted that the export gain in July provides some reassurance, but also said weakness in export data is unexplained. Keeping his constructive tone intact, he said he expects a large recovery in the level of non-commodity exports. As for the downward shift in inflation risks, he explained that the output gap and exports are behind the downward tilt.
But the output gap is the biggest factor in lower inflation outlook he said. Responding to a question on housing, he said a slowdown in one housing market is rarely contagious. It is a pretty high bar for changing the target, but it is not impossible, the Governor said. And repeating his previous view, he said the adjustment to the oil shock will take several years.
European Outlook: Japanese stocks jumped higher leading broad gains on other European markets after the Bank of Japan decided not to cut interest rates further. The reaction shows that markets and especially banks were weary of a further deepening of negative rates, which banks and insurers in particular are struggling to cope with. It also kept the door open to another rate cut. The Yen was under pressure after the decision, which underpinned the outperformance of Japanese stock markets.
European markets will look ahead to the Fed decision, but the local calendar also has U. RBNZ — Expectations are for no change in the base rate from its current 2. Date : 22nd September Amidst the contradictions, the Fed has maintained that it is not politically motivated, which could ruffle more than a few feathers in the event of a hike as soon as November.
Strong domestic growth supported by high levels of migration which is also keeping earnings growth down tourism and construction. As for the Fed, while saying the case for tightening had increased, leaving the door open to a hike by year-end, the pace of tightening envisaged in was reduced relative to guidance given in June. The August low at European Outlook: Asian stocks rallied Japan was closed for a holiday , following on from gains on Wall Street after the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday.
Gilts are likely to continue to outperform as the BoE keeps the door open to another cut. The European calendar starts to pick up with French national business confidence numbers, the U. Main Macro Events Today US Initial Jobless claims — Initial claims data for the week of September 17 is out later and should show the headline holding at k median k , steady from last week and just above k in the week of September 3. Claims look poised to average k in September from k in August and k in July.
Expectations for nonfarm payrolls to be up k in September with the unemployment rate steady from 4. Draghi and Carney speeches — Both central bank heads are due to speak later today. Date : 23rd September FX News Today US Data Reports: Revealed weak August data for existing home sales and leading indicators, but a tight initial claims report for the BLS survey week of September that left mixed signals that were positive on net, with aid from a 0.
The 0. Most importantly, an 8k initial claims drop to k in the BLS survey week left that measure just above the year low of k in mid-April, as claims tighten into the end of Q3 to signal upside risk for the k September nonfarm payroll estimate. Year lows of Should the pendulum swing back again, that could put the Meanwhile, after bottoming at 2, European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down Nikkei closed The year Bund future already moved off highs in after hour trade yesterday and yields, which dropped sharply in Europe yesterday, are likely to pick up somewhat.
The European calendar focuses on preliminary PMI readings for September, which we expect to stabilise after the mixed August numbers. The yen also recouped from weakness, with the currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market performance.
Commodity and emerging market currencies have also given back some of the gains seen in the wake of the FOMC announcement. Not much near-term downside potential in the dollar as market participants will, like the Fed, be data dependent in forming their commitment. The MoM figure should rise to 0. Date : 27th September FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets managed to reverse earlier losses and are mostly up on the day, led by Hond Kong where casinos and banks outperformed as traders followed the U.
Oil prices are down on the day and off earlier highs, but the front end WTI future is holding above USD 45 per barrel ahead of the OPEC meeting, with some lingering hopes of an agreement on output caps. Gold hit highs of USD yesterday before settling to FX Update: The Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar rallied on what appears to be a generally perceived victory, at least from the perspective of financial markets, for Clinton in the first presidential debate of the campaign.
The peso rallied by over 1. Kaplan is not a voter this year, but does vote on the FOMC in He remains concerned about the distortions created by low rates. Fed governor Tarullo would like a tougher capital plan for large U. US Data Reports: Revealed a 7. Most housing metrics performed well through the spring and summer season despite weak residential construction in the Q2 GDP report, and weak monthly new construction figures through July that imply residential construction weakness in Q3 as well.
We also saw a largely expected rise in the Dallas Fed index to The component data were stronger than the headline, and the ISM-adjusted Dallas Fed rose to a respectable The first release on Michigan Sentiment for September was tepid with the headline holding steady at Any departures from script are unlikely but following Jackson Hole anything is possible.
Date : 28th September Elsewhere financials remained under pressure as concerns over Deutsche Bank AG continue to weigh on the sector. The European calendar remains relatively quiet, German consumer confidence has already reported and missed expectations We appear to be on the cusp of an inventory reversal that will lift GDP growth, though the rise will likely not be captured until Q4.
Inventories expected unchanged. Durable goods ex- transport expected to fall Later Mr Draghi speaks in the German Bundestag with his thoughts on the current developments in the Euro area. Date : 29th September The European data calendar is very busy today, with preliminary inflation data for September for Spain and Germany, as well as German unemployment and the Eurozone ESI economic confidence indicator.
The production cut was between k and k barrels per day, which will limit supply to between It was a surprise because Saudi Arabia had dampened market expectations for a deal ahead of the meeting in Algiers. This is the first coordinated action to lift crude prices in eight years, and marks a shift in strategy of the group to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as shale field drillers.
Markets will be paying close attention to the implementation of the production cut, particularly given the lack of information about how much each producer will curtail output. OPEC next meets officially at the end of November. Fedspeak: Governor Yellen: The rate hike outlook said that in the event of economic overheating the Fed is prepared to adjust policy accordingly, as the jobless rate could fall farther and continued job creation at the current pace could lead to overheating.
Later Loretta Mester noted the risks in waiting too long to raise rates and worried that further delays may force a steeper trajectory in the future. And the economy is expected to continue to show strength too. She reiterated the maxim that monetary policy works with a lag, so policy actions need to be taken before the goals are met. While the U. Finally, Charles Evans reiterated the likelihood that rates remain lower for longer, in his prepared remarks to community bankers.
Policy will be normalized at a very gradual pace. The low rate scenario means the Fed will have less room to respond to downside shocks. The dovishly inclined Evans is not a voter this year but rotates into that position in Looking ahead to Q3, the headline could be stronger at 2.
Date : 30th September Wall Street closed with losses and in Asia, lenders were also under pressure, with Nikkei and Hang Seng down more than 1. Released overnight U. GfK consumer confidence came in better than expected and improved to -1 to -7 in the previous month. In a speech by Mr.
Kuroda to the Japanese parliament he explained that the BOJ are internally debating exit strategy from ultra-easy policy but speaking specifically about those means too hastily could cause confusion in markets. The calendar also has German retail sales at the start of the session, French consumer spending and the final reading of U.
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