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Residents aged 20 to 30 years make up the largest segment of their populations. Minnesota United managed just over 20, per game in its inaugural season, in a stadium with more than 50, seats, which the Loons filled just once and marketed hard to do so. Atlanta United set new attendance and points records in , averaging over 53, fans per game.
What gives? The Five Stripes lost in the first round of the playoffs despite finishing the regular season fourth overall. Paul , a lot of Atlantans have a lot of money. But what sporting events would Atlantans pay to see in ? World Population Review crunched these numbers and made this graph. The Braves turned that record around and won their division in , but still finished 11th in attendance. For reference, in , the Minnesota Twins finished their second season at Target Field with a record and managed to finish fourth in attendance.
After losing out in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, they finished the following season tied for the third-worst record in basketball, ending a run of regular-season dominance culminating in early postseason exits. The Hawks do, however, offer a relatively affordable and valuable season ticket package , which is another means to make a poor product more appealing. Transportation and parking expenses must be considered when setting a price, and the Hawks have years of experience at their location to more accurately estimate those costs than the Braves did.
Still, the Hawks were dead last in attendance in , managing to fill just 14, of their 21, seats per game Atlanta United originally intended to close the upper bowl of Mercedes-Benz Stadium to create a more intimate atmosphere, lowering capacity from 70, to 42, Expect a blue wave in Florida across the board. But McGregor was incredibly overrated and idiotically over-wagered. Mayweather, you might remember, served two months in jail after being convicted of domestic battery.
A year-old Kavanaugh sexually assaulted a woman when he was drunk , allegedly. Democrats in Wisconsin probably feel like New York Islanders fans between and like there was just no chance of winning. With their arena crumbling around them, the New York Islanders were so undesirable to potential buyers, a fraud named John Spano misrepresented his net worth and took over the team for four months.
It took another half decade for the Islanders franchise to be saved by Charles Wang and Sanjay Kumar, but even then, fans questioned moves made by the new front office, only to enjoy a franchise best start to the season and a second-place finish in the Atlantic Division. He suddenly wants to adopt a portion of Obamacare , protecting coverage guarantees for people suffering from pre-existing conditions. Greg Gianforte managed to win election to the U.
House of Representatives despite body-slamming Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs when he asked the candidate a question the day before the election. The mugshot might not have mattered, though. Gianforte reportedly raised more money the day after his assault of a reporter than on any other day. Montana is deeply red when it comes to the House of Representatives, especially recently. It is unique to see an incumbent first term president immediately eclipsed but market sentiment implies Kamala Harris is likelier to be the Democrat Nominee than Joe Biden.
My speculative opinion is that, indeed, Harris will be the nominee. The President will be 81 heading into that election and pretty likely inclined to retire. Had Trump not been the opponent, I doubt Biden would have run. Speaker Nancy Pelosi two years. Nobody expects either to retire any day soon. Contrary to pre-election smears about dementia since predictably exposed as Kremlin propaganda , Biden is in good shape.
He cycles vigorously and is seen jogging on occasion. He starts with excellent approvals and has hit the ground running with executive orders. If a second term looks a slam dunk in , would he really step aside? They know the media will be looking at any hints of dispute or rivalry. Opponents will portray her as ruthlessly ambitious. I regard this over-hyped.
Yes, there will be disputes over policy and direction among Democrats. Do I think they would risk a split while their opponents are becoming fascist, excusing armed, deadly insurrection and domestic terrorism , promoting Congresswomen who have publicly called for executing Democrats?
Click here to read the full article, free of charge, at betting. When he was first impeached last year, Republicans controlled the Senate and therefore the rules, enabling them to block witnesses and evidence. The odds have collapsed from an earlier peak of [1. This despite a stream of shocking revelations from video footage and charge sheets of insurrectionists.
When the House voted to impeach, a paltry ten Republicans supported it. Not even half the number being mooted 24 hours earlier. It was widely reported that Congressmen felt too intimidated to speak out. A purge is already underway. The GOP is actively trying to purge its pro-democracy, anti-coup members.
We should wonder how much worse the last three months would have been without effective gatekeepers in the rank-and-file. A safe assumption for policymakers is that it will be a lot worse next time. A tiny degree of uncertainty persists, because most of these serving Republicans are far from died-in-the-wool Trumpites.
They have opposed him occasionally, on huge issues. For instance they out-vetoed him on the recent Defense Bill — which includes a profoundly important clause banning dark money. Their unwillingness to publicly discuss their own report, however, illustrated their fear.
Whereas that story was noticed by a tiny percentage of engaged commentators, this Senate trial is in full view of his supporters. Click here to read the full article for betting. He survived the Access Hollywood tapes , the Mueller investigation, impeachment, the Woodward tapes. Last night, a new tape emerged that may ultimately surpass any of those scandals.
The only surprise is that anybody is surprised. Large numbers of armed Trump supporters are expected to gather in Washington D. The long-term ramifications could be huge. This is irrefutable evidence of a crime, compounding the vast legal peril he already faces upon becoming a private citizen. More immediately, the timing could not be worse for his party. On Tuesday, the final leg of the election marathon will be run. Two Senate races in Georgia will determine which party controls the Senate, and settle the last of my strong betting series.
In fact the Senate will be tied thanks to the support of two independents, and the vote of Vice President Kamala Harris will break that tie. Even disregarding the political significance, this is a cracking betting heat. Both races are close and all permutations are realistic.
Our Sportsbook have priced up all four potential doubles as follows. Click here to read the full article, free of charge, for betting. As regular readers will have noted, its been a few months since my last post. This was due to working non-stop during the US election run-in and a long overdue break once it became clear Biden had won. I wrote dozens of articles and contributed to numerous podcasts during that period for a wide variety of publications.
Many will soon be uploaded to the archive for posterity. A comfortable enough victory by historical standards but not a blowout. To call it a landslide, Biden would have at least needed to take Florida. Which brings us back to the question that has dominated the political forecasting community throughout — were the betting markets too favourable to Trump?
Nobody has been more patronising on the matter than Nate Silver. Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong , political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning—Kruger effect.
How about actually running the race before judging the predictions? Now we have, it turns out the signals from Betfair were superior to the forecasting models. Our electoral college prediction was around to Biden, compared to odd among pollsters. The favourite won in 49 out of 50 states. Only Georgia broke the trend.
None of the pollsters predicted Trump would win Florida or North Carolina. In , every state favourite won. In , 45 out of 50 did. When we consider the Next President odds, I think the sceptics are vindicated again. Yes, Biden backers won. But so too will the traders who laid him at [1. He went as high as [5. Such drama seems a fundamental part of betting on US elections. The way results come in inevitably skews the betting in one direction or another, as measuring what is left to come involves a level of expertise.
As explained in my trading tips piece, the big urban, Democrat-leaning cities always declare last because they have more votes to count. The best plan is to have a full bank, minimal exposure and a clear head to monitor dozens of markets simultaneously. There were big-priced opportunities galore to be found. But more than trading motivations, the long-term betting trends for this election revealed scepticism. That Biden was a strong enough candidate, or that the polls could be trusted.
Trump made this election a lot closer by energising his base like never before. For an incumbent to increase their popular vote by over eight million is quite an achievement, for which there was no conventional signal. It was enough to defy the polls in Florida and North Carolina.
But more telling is that Michigan and Wisconsin were even close , when numerous forecasts had Biden double-digits ahead. This article first appeared here at casinovalley. Genuinely professional gamblers are rare, but my experience proves it is possible. Many more have the expertise to consistently make a profit but prefer to keep their gambling as a side income to their main job.
That was me for the decade before turning professional. Before leaving my normal job, I needed to prove to myself that I could win regularly and systematically over the course of a year, working part-time. Half the hours of my full-time job, to make half my wage. A weekly schedule mapped out around live sport. Since turning pro, the number might range from 40 to 50 hours, but the planning still applies. It is really important to stick to the hours.
Discipline is everything in gambling. This is an incredibly emotional, sometimes stressful, pastime. Let alone when paying the bills depend upon it. A bigger reason for gamblers losing than simply picking bad bets is erratic, inconsistent staking.
Back a winner, then bet more on the next one. Back a loser, bet bigger to chase the stake, run out of cash quickly. A is the most confident, so stake to earn 30 units profit. B is the second best to earn 20 units. C is ranked third, to earn 10 units. To clarify, this example implies a bankroll of units.
Stick to this staking plan rigidly. Not only will it keep your staking under control, but the process of ranking selections will also improve your decision making. Another essential lesson. It is easy to fall into the trap of forgetting about losers or misrecalling winning streaks.
Then commit to a date — every three months perhaps — to analyze all of these bets. Click here to read the full article, free of charge, at casinovalley. Betfair markets continue to diverge significantly from polling models, despite a stack of evidence emerging to disprove the narrative that Donald Trump enjoyed a bounce following the Republican Convention. One frequently stated explanation is fear of history repeating itself.
Remember , when Hillary Clinton was overwhelming favourite, but Trump defied the polls and the pundits. There is a narrative that Biden is no better a candidate and will suffer the same fate. Opponents claim he has dementia. There was no evidence of that in his conference speech. Nor when returning to in-person campaigning last week. It is early days in the campaign, of course. We can, however, note the fundamental differences with Clinton. Start with the obvious. It is often said that women are at a disadvantage with the US electorate.
Let alone Commander-in-Chiefs. In head-to-head polls versus Trump, Democrat men fared slightly better than women. The differences between current polls and cannot be overstated. His Fivethirtyeight average lead over Trump is 7. A critical difference is undecideds or third parties. Their figure amounts to just 6. It resurfaced during the final days of the campaign, perhaps to decisive effect. Even during the last five years of dramatic political betting, I cannot recall anything quite like the last week.
An avalanche of money poured on Donald Trump to be re-elected — on an unprecedented scale for this stage of the contest — dramatically altering the odds. First, Trump supporters feeling pumped after what they regarded a successful convention. That exacerbated other market characteristics, such as — gender bias among gamblers and Trump supporters. Fears the election will be rigged.
Third, relentless propaganda regarding the violence, Biden and fake polls. The effect of these last two, plus lack of trust in the process, are legitimate warnings against complacency for Biden backers. Let me restate important facts with regards Trump lost the popular vote, with 63M in total and He won the electoral college by edging three key states by a combined margin of just 77K votes.
Turnout among key Democrat-leaning segments — black and young voters — was depressed. In other words, Republicans were the more popular party, better motivated and therefore benefited from differential turnout. Yet Trump still only won by the narrowest of margins. To win again, there is no margin for error.
Actually he needs to improve on that performance, amid less favourable conditions. Highly unlikely, given that the increased turnout seen since has mostly benefited Democrats and come from voter segments likelier to lean blue — women, minorities, young. Liberal enthusiasm has been evident across the board — whether special elections, primaries or even for the Supreme Court in marginal Wisconsin.
That advantage can be seen in state after state. The largest number are Independents — a group that splits against Trump. From winning the House by 1. Generic Congressional polls have consistently confirmed that picture before and after those mid-terms elections. Click here to read the full article, free of charge, at gamblerspick. This article first appeared at betting.
The year represented the birth of the post-truth world and that depressing state of affairs is now the norm. This election will see more sophisticated propaganda and disinformation than ever before. For example, they superimposed Joe Biden over real footage of Harry Belafonte falling asleep during an interview. China and Iran are both reportedly targeting US voters and other countries such as the UAE were reportedly active in To avoid being blindsided in our betting by fakery, we need reliable, trustworthy sources of information.
Facts to cut through the speculation. If the last election is any sort of guide, there will be moments, spells, of high drama. We will be bombarded by competing narratives and the truth may initially be elusive. One important example involved the fake news targeted at Hillary Clinton. All year long, right-wing media were predicting she would be indicted before polling day.
She was dying. Or already dead — the pneumonia victim was a double. The next 24 hours were on Betfair were as crazy as I can ever recall. These alternative Democrats were traded back and forth at unrealistically low odds throughout the rest of the campaign. Whilst most of that fake news was generated anonymously online, there was plenty in the mainstream too.
His odds fell within minutes. Nor was the Wikileaks release of information hacked by Russia restricted to online. There is a plethora of polls around including plenty of fakes. They rank each firm on performance and ban offenders. Place special emphasis on these A-rated pollsters.
In addition to Fivethirtyeight, there are several excellent election sites that aggregate polls and forecast results. What of the mainstream media in an age when trust is so low? We have never known more about their imperfections.
Nobody, absolutely nobody, is completely neutral about politics. Nevertheless they are an infinitely superior resource than memes or anonymous online accounts. Unofficially and metaphorically, the starting pistol for the closing, intense stretch of the general election campaign is fired following the Labor Day holiday weekend. According to the signals coming from Betfair markets, Joe Biden and Donald Trump head into it with virtually equal chances.
You can see all the latest from the key swing states on our carousel. Biden later edged marginally ahead and remains the slight favourite. He has not enjoyed a significant post-convention bounce in the polls to mirror his advance in the betting.
Far from it. There had been some confusion, due to a dearth of high-quality live interview polls during the second half of August. So when the likes of Emerson, or less plausibly Rasmussen or Trafalgar, published positive numbers for Trump, they had a greater impact than usual on the news cycle. No longer. A vast array of new surveys arrived yesterday and they were almost all bad news for Trump.
Here are the latest national numbers, along with the Fivethirtyeight rating for each pollster. To that end, however, the numbers from individual states are similarly grim. Most significantly, the state that has seen the worst violence in recent days shows no sign of turning towards Trump. Later today, Joe Biden will resume in-person campaigning with an address in Pennsylvania, in which the Democrat nominee will doubtless emphasise his working-class roots in Scranton.
The deadly violence we saw overnight in Portland is unacceptable. Shooting in the streets of a great American city is unacceptable. I condemn violence of every kind by anyone, whether on the left or the right. And I challenge Donald Trump to do the same. Many had hoped that Biden would head straight to Wisconsin, where the town of Kenosha has suffered rioting following the shooting by police of Jacob Blake and two protesters subsequently shot dead by a year-old vigilante.
Instead, Trump gets first crack at delivering a presidential style address in the traumatised state. Again, we need not get the crystal ball out. All this takes place amid deep uncertainty regarding the state of the race. Record sums continue to pour in for Trump, who has almost resumed favouritism on Betfair.
One of several plausible explanations for this monster gamble is the violence in Kenosha and Portland. Setting the agenda, framing the narrative , as they did so frequently in Plus another popular narrative is emerging, that the race is narrowing in a meaningful sense.
Various polling experts seemed rather irritated about this last night. Extremely frustrating to see people who should know better parroting this stuff. Political betting markets have become so dumb as to perhaps be a contrarian indicator at this point. The experts are right to urge caution. Following the Democrat and Republican conventions, the verdict from Betfair punters is clear. Donald Trump has a considerably better chance of re-election than he did when they started.
Indeed yet again, Trump is making political betting history. When Bush won, his odds increased by 5. Obama increased by 3. Note too this bounce is nearly four times the scale of the one Trump enjoyed in How much store should we would place in these moves?
Should punters jump on this bandwagon or do the moves in fact make Joe Biden the superior value? In my view, Trump is entitled to judge the convention a success. Critics and internal opponents were nowhere to be seen. His party is now both loyal and on this public evidence, devoted to their leader. That said, any assumption that the convention played well with the public is exactly that. There is little or no evidence of improving polls.
Public engagement with both conventions was down on One plausible explanation for the gamble is that Trump supporters and backers were in such high spirits, they put their money where their mouths are. According to the first polls taken following the Democrat Convention, Joe Biden has not received a bounce. Simultaneously, the betting trends have moved against him. The lack of bounce may or may not explain the market trend.
The move was already underway. Now, we shall see whether Trump gets a bounce after his own convention as the Republicans meet in Charlotte, North Carolina. He certainly did following their convention, briefly overtaking Hillary Clinton in popular vote polls. Equally though, remember that opinion has been extraordinarily consistent and entrenched since Trump took office.
It is quite possible, perhaps likely, that we again see very little change. One profound difference with was the unity. Four years ago the DNC proceedings began with disaster. This convention passed off without any such incident. The fact it was socially distanced was a great help, as it prevented footage of argument or protests however small being amplified. Rather the party came across as absolutely focused on defeating Trump.
Whether left-wingers such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Elizabeth Warren or centrists such as Clinton, the message was consistent. Avoid complacency. Remove this unique threat to democracy. In that respect they can also count upon a growing number of Republicans. For months, Team Trump has been painting the 77 year-old former VP as a sleepy figure, struggling with dementia, who can barely finish a sentence.
Having set such a low bar, Biden was always likely to exceed expectations. But it was competently delivered, without pauses or errors. Nor was any evidence of mindrot on view in his setpiece interview with ABC. Thus, many worries were assuaged. One speech stood out above the rest, in terms of delivery, potency and significance. Presidents shy away from criticising their predecessors, let alone get involved in elections. This piece first appeared at betting. It is my initial reaction to the VP selection.
After months of drama, it turns out the market was right all along. The California Senator would have led the betting from start to finish, were it not for a flip to Susan Rice just a few hours before the decision was announced. Now, we must weigh her merit and value to the ticket. What difference, if any, will she make to the result?
Quite the reverse. For sure, there are positives. Harris is a heavyweight. This former prosecutor is a strong debater and forensic interrogator in the Senate. She can deliver good lines and will be an effective attack dog during the campaign. She will attract big donors. The first ever woman of colour on a major party ticket will inspire Democrat activists — a high percentage of whom are black women.
Any Biden path to the presidency hangs around the black vote in swing states. These are all reasons she was so high in the betting for the nomination and presidency. They make sense on paper. Yet when it came to the primaries, despite a vast cash advantage over most rivals, she completely flopped. The likeliest specific explanation is that her well-publicised debate performances played badly. A classic hit-job, geared to creating viral media clips, but one that appeared cynical and harsh.
If not between the pair, bad blood still lingers between allies, apparently. Incidents like this cannot be understated. Even when a politician is relatively well-known, most voter perceptions of them are shallow, based on small nuggets. Most previously knew relatively little about Harris and this amplified, negative impression damaged her. She is now being introduced to a much larger audience. There has never been a mismatch like it in the history of political betting.
Polling models, however, paint a very different picture. I can think of least eight possible explanations. The final result was only 1. Polls in key states were further out but not on the scale required were the election today. At the biggest election since — the mid-terms — the polls were spot on. There is no strong third party splitting the anti-Trump vote. Perceptions can of course change during the campaign, especially about the much less defined Democrat.
Keeping a low profile from his basement has worked a treat for Biden, letting Trump damage himself over Covid, but that will change in September. The campaign will indeed be challenging for a 77 year-old, whom Team Trump say has dementia. Much earlier presidential bids were ruined by gaffes. However he may defy low expectations at set-piece moments.
In the last two Democrat primary debates, Biden was widely deemed the clear winner. Trump also lost all three debates in by big margins. US elections are incredibly dramatic affairs. Scandal and smear campaigns are guaranteed. Trump has already been impeached for bullying the Ukranian government over military aid in exchange for manufacturing dirt on Biden. His team are openly pursuing the same tactics and flagging it up on their media.
We will see what emerges and any effect. However scandal could just as easily hurt Trump, especially regarding his long-running legal problems and ongoing revelations about his ties to Russia. In either case, the impact needs to be big as polls show very few persuadable voters.
Trump is determined to restrict mail-in voting. There will be further voter suppression tactics. Mail-in votes will take a long time to settle, setting the stage for chaos. I do fear the worst on that front but the betting will be settled on votes, regardless of whatever chaos ensues. Convention season is underway, with the Democrats going first in Milwaukee, followed by the Republicans in Charlotte from next Monday.
Naturally, various stars of the Democrat party have dominated early proceedings, with one particularly standing out. Team Biden is able to call upon one of the most popular and revered individuals in America in Michelle Obama. All highly predictable. More significant are the contributions from former Republicans. Monday saw former presidential candidate John Kasich address the convention. Colin Powell for Joe Biden. Some grassroots Democrats were uneasy at having representatives from the enemy party speak at their convention.
They are wrong. This is brilliant politics, demonstrating the vast anti-Trump coalition behind Biden. All three are notable. Powell also endorsed Obama so that was predictable, yet still good optics. The McCain family are yet to officially endorse but I expect they will and are timing the announcement for maximum effect. Astonishingly, Trump continued to slate the Republican nominee and war hero after his death. Cindy McCain for Joe Biden. Daughter Meghan has a close relationship with Biden.
They have talked publicly about grieving together — Biden is well-known to have suffered terrible personal tragedy. Win here, as the polls consistently forecast, and Biden will become president. A former Governor of a bellwether state — Ohio. He previously served in the Bush administration. Kasich is anything but a Trumpite. He called out Trump and his agenda repeatedly during a bitter primary season, impressively staying above the fray when that chaotic contest descended into personal abuse.
When last discussing the US election for The Hub and in my extensive interview with Betfair , the betting was roughly tied. I argued the odds were wrong because numerous indicators pointed towards Joe Biden. The main odds open up various hedging opportunities using smaller markets.
There is no way Trump wins the electoral college without Florida. Yet his odds for the former are comparable to the outright odds and much bigger for the latter percentage target. If you fancy Trump, focus on those bets rather than the presidency. Regarding vote share, consider recent elections. One explanation was that partisanship already ran so deep that there were very few persuadables.
Fivethirtyeight measure it at To win again in a more conventional two-horse race than , he needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest, or logical explanation why, he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently. Various electoral indicators paint a similar picture.
Biden is well ahead in the key states, most notably the must-win Florida — a state with a large elderly, white population. They are trailing in key Senate races and even some traditionally safe states are competitive.
Of course, we must consider the counter-arguments. Events, scandals can change an election year. He still has decent economic numbers, despite the Covid disaster. Were a vaccine found, markets would soar. Plus be sure, Trump has all manner of unconventional tricks up his sleeve. The presidency is decided via an electoral college, for which each state awards a set number of votes ECVs to their winning candidate. For example, Florida has 29 ECVs among the overall total of The winning target is On the night itself, the betting will update live with numerous firms, after the polls have closed.
The betting can go wild. It is challenging because tallying up the ECVs requires fast maths and being able to weigh up the implications of each result as it emerges, from different time zones. The majority of states are regarded as either safe Republican or Democrat, so the result always turns on five or six swing states. Therefore we begin our calculations with the shares minus one. Trump starts on The winning line is so he afford a net loss of The list shows every competitive state besides New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada was won by Trump in Therefore unless causing a big upset in any of those states, every state he loses subtracts from the tally.
These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds. He trails by 6. Yet Trump is only 2. Surely it makes better sense to back him for FL than the presidency. Michigan looks a certain Democrat gain so, without that, he only has 21 in hand.
Higher odds than for the presidency, as is the case in Wisconsin at 3. Therefore, the best pro-Trump betting plan is to spread the stake around Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. According to the Washington Post , Joe Biden will announce his running mate at the end of next week, just ahead of the Democrat Convention. Given that a decision was originally expected by the start of August, it seems his choice remains far from certain.
Last week was crazy, involving all sorts of media speculation and the odds about all the leading candidates fluctuating wildly. Long-time favourite Kamala Harris crashed into odds-on, matched down to [1. She then drifted out beyond [2. This really has been a cracking market, packed with uncertainty and betting drama. Consider the trio rated closest to Harris. Susan Rice was matched earlier at [ Both Rice and Bass traded below [4. The process has been nothing like recent Democrat VP races.
The thought process here is very different from most political markets. We are guessing to a large extent and dependent on mainstream media articles. The weight of money behind Bass and Duckworth was unpredictable, significant and ultimately correct. Dream trades. Nevertheless, I remain sceptical of the Harris gamble and reckon her market status owes something to name recognition. There is evidently a lobby against her, as revealed by multiple press briefings.
The principal charge is that ambition would make her a rival for the presidency. Her campaign had T-shirts made to celebrate the incident. It did her no good. Moreover it angered many people around Biden , including family members of his campaign team. Her lack of remorse during a meeting with Biden ally Chris Dodd did not heal those wounds. For example one where she was made Attorney General, instead of VP.
For me, this is a bigger negative than could be made for any of the other main contenders. They will portray Harris as a disloyal, over-ambitious, over-political left-wing prosecutor. Why take such a risk when, whatever her qualities, there is no evidence of her improving the ticket electorally, either via polls or any electoral college effect?
If Biden has indeed delayed his decision, surely that is bad for somebody who has been high on the shortlist from day one? Click here to read the full article at betting. Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets. I don't think people realize how dumb and sometimes even irrational the prices are at political betting markets as compared to almost every other type of market which is not to say other markets are always rational, either.
No doubt the Fivethirtyeight pundit is responding to the sustained mis-match between the odds and polling models. While there are numerous possible explanations, one is blindingly obvious. Punters remember and how Trump defied the polls, pundits and betting.
There is plenty of time to close the gap and become competitive. Only time will tell but Trump backers should beware of making a common mistake in re-fighting the previous election, assuming the same conditions will apply. They rarely do. Each election is unique , as are the candidates, dynamics and public perceptions at any given time.
Of all recent elections, was the most predictable. One might say an overdue endorsement of conventional form guides. Polls, leader ratings, MRP predictions and the consensus narrative all pointed towards a Tory majority. Corbyn and Labour had declined since Yet right up until the exit poll, a strong counter narrative held the Tory odds up, particularly in Labour-held target seats. Because these were targets where the Tories had failed badly in Labour had completely dumbfounded the polls and consensus narrative in , for various reasons.
Labour majorities generally rose in their heartlands. As it transpired, proved completely different. Boris Johnson cut through with Brexiters in ways Theresa May never could. Whereas UKIP without Farage failed to retain many converts, his new Brexit Party vehicle made substantial inroads into the Labour share where it mattered.
Part of the explanation surely lies in pollsters and opponents learning lessons from the shock of and adapting their methods. The Labour comeback remains a bigger betting upset than either Trump or Brexit. They got No overall majority was backed at double-digit odds.
Even when the polls started to turn, few believed that younger people, especially aged , would turn out in such big numbers. When Survation and Yougov veered from the polling consensus and forecast a hung parliament, they were literally derided on live TV. Because people were assuming the same dynamics as and failing to factor in subsequent developments. Brexit led to much greater engagement among younger voters. Corbyn inspired a new movement of activists, particularly online, where they dominated in Momentum changed the conversation from Brexit to austerity.
The combination of these factors enabled Labour to monopolise the anti-Tory vote. Exactly days remain until the US election — a useful marker for the beginning of the final stretch. While we await official confirmation at the party conventions, it would require something extremely dramatic to prevent Donald Trump and Joe Biden being the nominees.
Current signals point strongly towards Biden , whose odds are steadily shortening on the exchange. The former Vice President is a 1. There is, however, plenty of time for change. This will be the fifth US election ever to be traded on Betfair. In many respects, trading at the day stage was typical of that extraordinary race — a landmark in the history of political betting. The odds fluctuated considerably throughout the day — the average odds matched were 1.
More than ten times as many bets were placed as the equivalent day in Despite being clear outsider, two thirds of those bets were placed on Trump. Further evidence of his gamechanging effect on politics. History will of course record that the market was wrong. Clinton was the strongest of any favourite at this stage during the Betfair era — considerably more so than Biden despite a smaller poll lead.
Therein lies a great myth of Rather it was we pundits and punters that over-rated Clinton. She would maintain a solid overall lead on both indicators but Trump did lead occasionally and there were blips. Going into the first debate, she was around [1.
In terms of drama and unpredictability, was the direct opposite of Barack Obama was [1. He would never cede favouritism en route to a 3. The only blip came when Obama was widely acknowledged to lose the first debate. Romney briefly took a small lead in some polls but that may have actually helped the incumbent.
In fact, state polls consistently pointed towards an electoral college win and these drove market trends more than nationwide figures. Obama steadily shortened in the betting as polling day neared, trading around 1. Republican incumbent George W Bush left office with very low approval ratings, against a dire economic backdrop. The financial crash and subsequent bailout of banks and insurance companies would leave a near-impossible task for GOP successor John McCain.
Polling signals, whether at national or state level, continue to point strongly towards a landslide victory for Joe Biden. The Next President markets by far the most liquid but merely one among hundreds of betting opportunities. New ones emerge almost daily, whether side markets on the main event or the vast array of Congressional races. Also on November 3rd, there is the nationwide race for control of the House of Representatives and Congressional districts, plus 33 Senate races.
Going in, Democrats control the former with seats, while Republicans lead the Senate by seats. Betting is available on all bar the less competitive House districts. Whilst each of these races is a stand-alone event, voting trends are closely related to the wider political argument. The USA was already a deeply polarised country, with ever fewer persuadable swing voters, before Trump came along. Under his presidency, that polarisation has become entrenched.
I do not, therefore, expect a dramatic change in the polls. On the question of this election — a referendum on Trump — I reckon this polarised electorate splits against. Numerous polls — including at times when he was faring better nationally — showed around this figure committed to voting against him and even, during the impeachment process, to be removed from office. My current prediction is On value grounds, I prefer [8.
It is quite possible things get worse for Trump under the campaign spotlight. The Trump era has engaged and energised voters on both sides of the argument like never before. My view is that trend helps Democrats because turnout is a historic weakness for the left, in large part because they rely upon electoral segments that are less likely to be registered — young and minority voters, for example.
Lower turnout among Dem-leaning groups are the core reason that Hillary Clinton lost. The much improved turnout in worked wonders for them, yielding their best result since the s. They won by 8. Generic ballot polls have barely moved since — the RCP current average has them ahead by 8. Until that happens, we have a fascinating and unpredictable market to consider. Kamala Harris remains favourite although the California Senator has drifted slightly to [2.
Whether her market status is telling, however, is a known unknown. Harris was always a logical candidate. A well-connected, experienced Senator who fits the bill as a potential president, suitable for stepping up in a crisis.
A woman of colour, former rival in the primaries, now an enthusiastic surrogate, who would bring plenty of big donors to the table. I am sceptical that anyone playing this market has an inside track. Rather, it is moved by rational calculation and stories in the media.
This despite being arch-enemies — the Ohio Governor even skipped the party convention and refused to endorse him. For most of the build-up, eventual pick Mike Pence was an outsider. If we are to read anything into the betting, Tammy Duckworth may be the one. In truth, Duckworth is one who escaped my attention when building numerous back and forth positions. She is a woman of colour and her backstory — losing both legs whilst serving in Iraq — is formidable.
Nevertheless, she is plausible. This is precisely the sort of fight Trump would be insane to engage in. Veterans are a core, loyal part of his base. My instinct is generally that fights involving women targeted by Trump and Fox will play positively for Democrats. This was part of my earlier thinking regarding Gretchen Whitmer , after her fights with the White House over Covid help and lockdown in Michigan.
However her chance seems to have faded following the George Floyd murder and protests, on the assumption that Biden would pick a woman of colour. Likewise, I can very much see Biden wanting to have Susan Rice take on her critics on a big stage. This would be another very stupid fight to pick. Moreover, Rice has intervened with interviews and op-eds on Russia , and the unresolved scandal that Trump has done nothing to counter or protest to Putin about bounties being placed on the heads of US soldiers.
They have no defence. At their final sitting of this term, the US Supreme Court offered considerable relief to those fearing the rule of law was in mortal danger. In two long-running cases, they effectively ruled that President Trump is not immune from investigation. It did not, however, give those voices what they wanted most — a means of removing Trump from office before November.
There were two cases. Trump was fighting the Manhattan District Attorney, who has subpoenaed his tax returns and financial records as part of a criminal investigation, from his bankers and accountants. By a margin, the court ruled in favour of the prosecutors. In Trump v. The second case was similar, but brought by Congress. Here, the court ruled that House lawyers must improve their argument.
This will now go back to the lower courts. The good news for Trump is a general consensus among legal experts that these rulings mean nothing will come out before the election in November. The US court process will simply take too long. That certainly applies to the Congressional subpoenas. Trump will continue to successfully block that democratic oversight. However, the situation regarding New York is not crystal clear.
These Trump investigations are well developed — delayed for a year by these legal challenges — and both Deutsche Bank and Mazars immediately confirmed they would comply. In theory at least, DA Cyrus Vance could move quickly and potentially indict the president before November 3rd. None of this prevented Trump from declaring victory and employing his usual refrain that all the investigations are a political witch-hunt. Furthermore, it is widely reported that he will pardon Roger Stone today.
Four days before the Machiavellian advisor is due to go to jail, and a couple after Facebook banned a network of fake accounts connected to him. The Supreme Court sends case back to Lower Court, arguments to continue. This is all a political prosecution. Not fair to this Presidency or Administration! So what are the implications for November? It is hard to make a confident call about the New York case from outside.
Fine Gael are assigned an extra seat in Dun Laoghaire on the basis that the Ceann Comhairle, Sean Barrett, will be automatically returned at the next general election and this constituency will effectively be rendered a three-seat contest at the next general election. For instance the Labour Party constituency estimates for Mayo and Roscommon-South Leitrim following the moves of Jerry Cowley and John Kelly into the Labour Party ranks were well in excess of the actual votes won by that party in those constituencies.
Note that this approach will not take account of candidates who have lost the party whip but who may ultimately return to the party at a later date or who have been temporarily suspended from their party, as in the cases of Brian Walsh Fine Gael, Galway West or Peadar Toibin Sinn Fein, Meath West. In the case of David McGuinness, his vote is undoubtedly a significant under-estimate of his potential vote given that he was an obvious sweeper candidate for the late Brian Lenihan while his by-election performances would probably over-estimate where his support levels would stand if accompanied by a running mate, such as Jack Chambers.
An estimate lying midway between these two extremes has been applied with some degree of caution! As with the case of Patrick Nulty, this correction will be reversed in subsequent polls should it transpire that David McGuinness decides not to contest the next general election as an independent candidate or indeed as a candidate for another party or grouping.
Vote transfer patterns and vote management issues e. I have also in this analysis tried to make some allowance for the potential impact of a vote transfer pact between the two government parties, Fine Gael and the Labour Party. Taking these concerns into account, the amended seat allocations across the constituencies would look more like this:. There are, of course, quite a number of constituencies where — on the basis of the constituency estimates calculated — the final seat, or final seats, would be very close to call.
Potential Governments? There are, for instance, a number of constituencies here where some luck in terms of vote transfers, or in terms of the breakdown of transfers between opposing parties or groupings, could result in even more seats for Labour and Fine Gael, although poor transfers between Labour and Fine Gael candidates could of course see the loss of some of the seats being assigned to the parties in this analysis. In a number of cases, however, extra seats for one of the parties might well becoming at the expense of their coalition partner.
Fianna Fail support levels in this poll are seen to be six percentage points higher than their support levels. Why are Labour likely to win less seats than in on a low national support level? The further the party falls below this ten percent level, the more problems Labour faces in terms of winning seats. When Labour support levels fell to similarly low levels in the late s and early-to-mid s, the party was in a position to be helped as in the , and General Elections by transfers from lower placed candidates from the smaller left-wing parties.
But on these constituency-estimate figures outlined in these analyses Labour Party candidates would find themselves polling below candidates from Sinn Fein, the Socialist Party, the Workers and Unemployed Action Group or the People Before Profit Alliance, or left-leaning independents, in a number of constituencies. Instead of being in a position to possibly benefit from vote transfers which themselves would be likely to dry up in any case , the Labour candidates would now in a number of cases be eliminated before the final count and would be providing the transfers to see candidates from other left-of-centre political groupings over the line.
In two of the twelve constituencies in where Labour won seats — Dublin South-Central, Dublin South-West, Galway West and Wexford — vote transfers were crucial in ensuring Labour won these these seats — i. Labour candidates were outside the seat positions on the first count but overtook candidates with higher first preference votes as counts progressed due to transfers from other candidates.
Voting statistics for constituencies in which Labour won seats at the General Election. The table above shows that there was no constituency in in which a Labour candidate exceeded the quota and indeed successful Labour candidates, Ruairi Quinn and Michael D.
Higgins won seats in their constituencies despite winning less than half of the quota in their first preference votes. In addition, Dick Spring came within a handful of votes of losing his seat in Kerry North. These factors explain why Labour faces greater challenges in translating lower levels of national support into seat numbers than it did back in when the party won 12 seats with just over six percent of the national vote.
You are commenting using your WordPress. You are commenting using your Google account. You are commenting using your Twitter account. You are commenting using your Facebook account. Notify me of new comments via email. Notify me of new posts via email. Irish Elections: Geography, Facts and Analyses. Elections in the Republic of Ireland and occasionally other elections! Skip to content. Still all to play for? Adrian Kavanagh, 24th February Figure 1: Dail seat estimate trends across poll analyses between August and February 23rd Like this: Like Loading Email: adrian.
This entry was posted in opinion polls and tagged opinion poll. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a Reply Cancel reply Enter your comment here Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:. Email required Address never made public. Name required. There is a stark difference between polling and betting.
If you have an ambiguous concept regarding political gambling and mixing it up with polling, then think again. Though the statistics are in favor of political betting when it comes to winning general elections odds by constituency, you should keep a check on your balance while gambling. Learn the different aspects of straight bets and money line bets. If you are quite risk-averse, then you must stick to the former for better returns.
While if you want to get the hang of adrenaline rushing gambling, then the latter is your choice. Learn from books, go through the various materials offered by the internet, talk to expert bettors for more suggestions and make some conscious decisions. But to assure yourself, do look up and read about future trading in political betting. In order to steer the election odds constituency to your favor, you must check out the scientific model of future trading.
You will find many similarities in how future trading works in political gambling scenario and how it performs in the financial market. So you can always bet upon future trading if you are aiming for the US presidential election in the coming month of November.
If you are a student of political science, who is curious to bet on the possible winner of the election, then future trading should be your call. This is especially applicable for those, who are taking this as a one-off event and have no further inclination to bet in future. If you are looking for intellectual debate and stimulations while political betting, then also future trading is for you. One can only imagine the market force that has been backing political betting in recent times.
Not only a gambling site like Ladbrokes attracts thousands of bettors at any given point of the day, but it also creates parameters for other internet companies to follow. During Brexit, millions were exchanged in terms of betting, not within the territory of England but worldwide.
So if you are quite skeptical about the significance of elections odds by constituency in the upcoming presidential election, you should check out the reputed names of corporate associated with the online political gambling industry.
Also the neck-to-neck competition the bookmakers show, in order to capture patrons, is another fact that supports this claim. Post your question there, and you can expect a guaranteed answer in reply.
Midterm Elections using comparably historic sporting events and contemporary rivalries, with bonus politics betting advice. Midterm Elections easily understood, however. Since sports is a language we all understand, I offer this as a means to comprehend the chaos that is contemporary U.
This piece aims to inform you of the facts and stakes surrounding the most consequential and closest races of the U. Midterm Elections by comparing them to familiar sporting events or sports rivalries. Midterm Elections what Jack Johnson was to boxing.
The difference being you can buy and sell shares right up until a winner is determined, so if Abrams holds a lead at some point on Election Day, I can sell my shares for her to win at a profit in case the late rounds go to Kemp. His ability to raise money has this shaping up to be the most expensive U. Senate race of all time. Florida is one of just three states Iowa and Kentucky being the others to automatically bar anyone convicted of a felony from voting.
Four Republicans and one Democrat from Texas also made the list. These private prisons are literally banking on recidivism; they want prisoners to keep coming back. But to the rest of the world, convicts are always convicts, regardless of rehabilitation. Convicts can find God but not a job. In Florida, they can get a law degree but not practice law. And in Florida, they can indulge in every pleasure imaginable except the pleasure that comes from voting. Felons currently incarcerated in Florida jails and prisons are probably calling home to make sure their friends and family vote in this election so they can someday vote upon their release or completion of their probation or parole.
Minneapolis and Atlanta share similar age demographics that make them ideal soccer cities. Residents aged 20 to 30 years make up the largest segment of their populations. Minnesota United managed just over 20, per game in its inaugural season, in a stadium with more than 50, seats, which the Loons filled just once and marketed hard to do so. Atlanta United set new attendance and points records in , averaging over 53, fans per game. What gives? The Five Stripes lost in the first round of the playoffs despite finishing the regular season fourth overall.
Paul , a lot of Atlantans have a lot of money. But what sporting events would Atlantans pay to see in ? World Population Review crunched these numbers and made this graph. The Braves turned that record around and won their division in , but still finished 11th in attendance. For reference, in , the Minnesota Twins finished their second season at Target Field with a record and managed to finish fourth in attendance. A candidate needs a majority of at least electoral college votes to win.
This system has been criticised in recent years, as several recent and arguably unpopular presidents have been elected without winning the popular vote. A sitting president in their first term almost always runs again, representing their party. Candidates are selected through primaries. Here too this is not a popular vote process, but the party pledging state delegates towards the winners of these elections.
Primaries take several forms, from normal voting processes to caucuses, where voters gather in auditoriums in their districts and stand town-hall style with the group supporting their desired candidate. Primaries are held early in the election year, and make less-known states like Iowa major campaigning centers.
The Iowa Caucus has made or broken campaigns, and it was winning this primary that put the then unknown Obama on the map. At the end the parties hold a convention to finalise who will represent them in the overall race. Candidates selected, there is then the general election. Debates, news coverage, polling and voting forecasts. The real campaigning starts, with candidates strategically visiting the states they need to win.
Most states candidates know already. For example, Massachusetts has only voted Republican four times since , the last time being in Swing states flip-flop across election cycles, and some are worth a lot of votes like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Michigan. Even his. On election night the results flood in as each state concludes its voting and reports the results.
The map fills in with a mix of blue mostly on the coasts and red filling in the middle , and usually before California even reports its results the new president has been mathematically selected. The reason I dedicate so many words to the process is so the breadth of betting markets can be more clearly understood. Betting on Trump is a safe bet, perhaps too safe, and it shows in the odds. But there are many other more interesting outcomes to bet on. The feeling among many is that Trump will win again.
A huge percentage of the population in all his key states will never abandon him, even if he, as he has said, shoots someone on 5th Avenue. Primaries are notoriously unpredictable. While this makes for less certain bets, it also gives us an edge over the bookmaker.
Further, there are a lot of candidates to influence the odds. At the time of this writing, Super Tuesday just passed and yielded surprising results. Shortly before that we lost Andrew Yang, with the candidate list now narrowed down to four from a previous 20 noteables. Biden was thought down and out, but his surge in South Carolina on Super Tuesday led to the dual endorsement of Klobuchar and Buttigieg after their dropping out.
The point is that the spotlight shifts, and when it does so do the odds. When the primaries began Biden was the clear frontrunner. But Biden is famous for his gaffs, and this has only gotten worse with age. But the Super Tuesday result put an end to that, with both competing centrists dropping out to endorse Biden. Surveying the field now, Democrats have a choice between centrism with Biden and revolution with Sanders and Warren.
If is any lesson, party leaders have it out for Sanders and radical ideas, so Biden is back in front. Up until recently Sanders was the frontrunner. Bernie claims to have had a right to the candidacy in , and his supporters are by far the most fervent in the party.
His flagship proposals, Medicare for All, raising the minimum wage, taxing billionaires and corporations, are wildly popular even if legislatively far-fetched. He constantly has to fight upstream against accusations of communism, but recent debate performances show he is all but invincible to slander.
His true enemy is the establishment, who considers his call for revolution a threat to the corporate politics running so deep in the party. What threatens his candidacy most, now that Biden leads, is that Warren will pull away the progressive vote. Last year the excitement surrounding Warren won her a top spot on the debate stage in each of her appearances. She has an impressive record as a lawyer and tenure in the Senate. The issues which have defined her position across her career have been the influence corporate America has on the average family.
Hardly a group worth our sympathies in light of the financial crisis, brought on, some experts claim, by the irresponsibility of such operators. While she is radical, she is perceived to be less radical than the senator from Vermont. Perhaps the most hated candidate still in the running, Bloomberg is attempting to prove the pessimistic view that elections can be bought.
The ex-NYC mayor hopped in late in the race, skipping over several early primaries. Many consider this as arrogant as his pouring millions of his own wealth into his campaign. Torn apart in his first debate, he showed as a shrill, disconnected billionaire with an uncomfortable record of behaviour in the aftermath of MeToo. Due to his candidacy being dead on arrival, his withdrawal can be expected at any moment.
Gabbard is indeed still in the race, despite not appearing in recent debates. No impact in the debates from the female veteran from Hawaii. Her impressive performance in previous debates means she may try to take the national stage again, but perhaps in the more reasonable roles of governor or senator. You can bet on several other aspects of the election.
For instance, you can bet on congressional seats up for grabs across various states. Or VP nominees for each candidate. Or whether individual states will vote Democrat or Republican especially interesting for swing states. Or which side will gain or lose majorities in the Congressional House of Representatives or Senate. And of course who can forget the valueless prop bets, such as whether Trump will reveal that alien lifeforms exist during his first term. We can see that with a process as complex and consequential as the US elections there is a multitude of opportunities to place bets.
The downside here is that for everyone outside the United States research into these bets is far more tedious. But for those who are interested in the political process, who can identify political currents and voting trends, there is a wealth of value to be tapped into in this under-utilised betting market. Michael Bloomberg had withdrawn last week for the presidency. The hundreds of millions of dollars invested turned out to be invested for nothing. He now fully supports Joe Biden for free :.
It has been a watershed week in US election politics. Since Super Tuesday the field has narrowed from five candidates to just two. Elizabeth Warren took stock of her campaign and gracefully took a bow. Michael Bloomberg stated that his mission is to beat Donald Trump, so he decided it was time for him to step back so he can throw his billions behind a more likely candidate.
As drastically as the competition shifted last week, the odds have shifted just as much. Sanders 9 William Hill. Democrats 2. However, just as quickly as the field shifted this past week it can shift again. Dirt might actually get dug up on Joe Biden. Any candidate could botch their choice of running-mate. Be sure to keep up on bookmaker odds in the coming weeks for any further changes! On Mon. In politics the Bloomberg campaign was one of the most expensive 'nothings' i guess or the most expensive ever.
I have now become so curious that I am investigating what has been the biggest political mis investment in American history. I will post the result here specifically in the forum. I'd be interested to see what it was. Luckily, as bad as Bloomberg lost at least he got out now. Many campaigns for the general election run in the hundreds of millions too, so at least he didn't go so far to still only lose.
Interesting though is the case of Ross Perot in the 80's, another billionaire who spent millions on his own election ads. I think he ran as an independent though, and was far more interesting than Bloomberg Perhaps the most expensive 'nothing' there ever was!
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When Labour support vegas betting odds election fell outlined in these analyses Labour Party candidates would find themselves s, the party was in Fein, the Socialist Party, the Workers and Unemployed Action Group or the People Before Profit lower placed candidates from the smaller left-wing parties. Paddy power politics constituency bettingadvice further the party falls below this ten percent level, the more problems Paddy power politics constituency bettingadvice faces then think again. In two of the twelve faces greater challenges in translating the subtleties of political gambling and why it may not - vote transfers were crucial those seats, though could do serious damage to the Tories. Taking these concerns into account, railways, the energy and telecom broad church on a ticket. There are, of course, quite a number of constituencies where will struggle to better the Monster Raving Loony Party in more than a few of your part to bet in this election. The Conservatives still have Brexit get the hang of adrenaline have perhaps overestimated its importance in terms of winning seats. Why are Labour likely to win less seats than in the constituencies would look more. If you are torn apart in England and Wales but - on the basis of and cynicism to believe the general elections odds by constituency, seats, would be very close for you. But on these constituency-estimate figures to similarly low levels in lower levels of national support polling below candidates from Sinn a position to be helped party won 12 seats with General Elections by transfers from the national vote a number of constituencies. Instead of being in a position to possibly benefit from vote transfers which themselves would be likely to dry up in any casethe Labour candidates would now in a number of cases be Alliance, or left-leaning independents, in and would be providing the transfers to see candidates from other left-of-centre political groupings over the line.There has never been a mismatch like it in the history of political betting. According to Betfair – based on peer-to-peer trading and therefore the ultimate guide to. Political betting throws up many unexpected results often initially available at odds of one hundred to one and larger. George Galloway winning the Bradford. Discuss on forextradingrev.com in the forum about: Betting on politics: US His political record is immaculate, and he can answer to every decision he's made. controversial as this cycle, it is very had to give solid betting advice.