You've been there. The midday Sunday slate of NFL games is wrapping up, and you're focusing on whether your side can hold off a late rally in garbage time, or whether you under is going to hold. Or you're eyeing the line on the Sunday night game and figuring out how make this an even bigger week for your bankroll. While you're still stuck in Sunday mode, the bookmakers are crunching the numbers for the following week and getting ready to release the opening lines for those games.
And if you aren't thinking about next week until Monday morning, you're going to miss out on a prime opportunity to get your money down on a great number before the line moves following its Sunday release. How can you be ready for next week while still getting to enjoy Sundays watching football? That's where power ratings come in. The concept of ranking teams by overall strength isn't a foreign concept to anyone; our Pete Prisco shares his rankings of all 32 teams every week of the regular season.
Where power ratings for NFL bettors differ is that you must affix a point total to each team that signifies how far they are from an average team. Let's start right there, with our average team. Pick the team you consider the 16th- or 17th-best in the NFL in If you go by the season win total market, that's someone in the 49ers-Ravens tier of teams. Assign whichever teams you think are average with a power rating of zero. From there, you'll assign point totals for each team that are better or worse than average, generally staying within the range of plus-5 and minus-5 at this point of the season, since we have yet to see anyone play.
So if you believe the conventional wisdom this year, you'll have teams like the Chiefs and Saints as five points better than average, while the Dolphins and Cardinals will be about five points worse than average. Before we get to building a power ratings system, it's perfectly fine if you'd rather not dive deep into the weeds and just want some great picks to follow during the season.
You'll get all the graded picks from our SportsLine projection model and a wealth of great betting experts, including myself after I finished No. You'll also get my SuperContest plays every Saturday, which are my five best ATS bets for the week and which have a 58 percent hit rate over the last four years. If you're a sports betting nut, SportsLine is for you. I recently went through the win total market and ranked all 32 teams based on their price at the time, taking into account not just the number assigned to each team, but the juice on betting the over or the under.
I then assigned a relative power rating total to each team. This is a good jumping-off point for those who don't want to build their ratings from scratch like I do. All you have to do is adjust teams up and down based on your perception of their strength heading into Week 1 and only Week 1, more on that in a minute.
First, you'll notice that some teams with worse win total numbers appear above those that are a half-game better. That's thanks to the juice -- the totals are rating the Panthers virtually right at eight wins by making the over on their total , while the Titans and Jaguars are closer to 7.
Second, you'll note how much of a gap exists between the Patriots and the rest of the league. That makes sense when you consider how dominant they are in their division year in and year out. But if you think the Chiefs deserve top honors and the Patriots don't quite rise to that level, that's up to your discretion.
You should tweak your ratings unless they look right to you specifically. My ratings currently have the Chiefs, Saints and Eagles as plus-5, with the Patriots and Chargers just a half-step behind at plus Now that you have these numbers at hand, you're probably wondering how to use them. It's pretty simple! You make a line based on the difference between two teams' power ratings. So in the table above, if the Patriots plus-5 were to play the Chiefs plus-4 on a neutral field, you'd set the line at Patriots The market can be tricky to figure out for many bettors due to the levels of math involved in the odds.
If approached correctly, however, futures betting can see some significant return on investment. This section includes several things to do and keep in mind when handicapping the NFL futures market. To truly understand what the listed odds for NFL futures offerings mean, bettors must perform mathematical calculations to determine the implied probability of the future occurrence happening. The easiest way to do this is to convert whatever futures odds you are working with to fractional form.
There are many easy-to-use odds converter tools to do this. Once you have the odds of your future in fractional form, you can calculate the implied probability of the odds by dividing the denominator of the fraction by the sum of the denominator and numerator and then multiply the outcome by to convert to a percentage.
In equation form, you would perform:. To determine the implied probability, our math would be as follows:. Finding the true implied probability goes one step further than the above calculation. The four calculated implied probabilities of each team to win the AFC East add up to The extra To uncover the actual implied probability that the Jets have for winning the division, simply divide the previously calculated By performing the above calculations to see the probability your sportsbook is giving to a specific future offering, you can compare this with your probability, research, and projections regarding the future event outcome.
Remember that EV is relative to the posted odds, not to who you may necessarily favor overall. Many bettors use a power rankings system around which they base their in-season NFL handicapping. When it comes to NFL futures, you can use a similar power rankings approach to find value amongst the lines.
By comparing the power rankings season win totals to those on the betting market, bettors can find discrepancies and bet accordingly. There is any number of systems out there. An example of a strong formula for calculating win totals and creating individual game spreads is the Pythagorean theorem.
In addition to win totals futures themselves, power rankings systems can shed light on where value may lie in other NFL futures markets such as reaching the postseason, winning the division, or hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Comparing your projections to those implied by the market will help you find different wagers that you can feel confident about. In the case of futures odds to win a division, you would look for a situation in which two teams are listed with very similar or perhaps identical odds to prevail.
If your projections rate one of those teams considerably higher than the other, you have found a good futures betting option. A critical aspect of any type of sports betting involves shopping the lines across different sportsbooks.
Different books will offer different odds on NFL futures just as they will on game spreads and moneylines. Even if your projections show an edge on a future price at one book, you are still best advised to check other outlets as well. Exploring the odds at various sportsbooks allows turning a good advantage on a future bet into a great advantage.
When it comes to betting NFL futures, there are some noteworthy things to consider with regard to managing a bankroll. With this in mind, it is important to factor this into your bankroll management practices ahead of time. Knowing that you will be tying some of your bankroll up in a future offering, you must adjust your strategy for other wagers accordingly.
Once you have placed a futures wager, there is a way to net some return without having your ticket cash. If the team or player that you backed in the future bet is doing well and moving towards cashing the ticket, the tactic of hedging comes into play. This involves betting on the opposing side of your future ticket. If you do this correctly, you are guaranteed to at least return some of the money wagered on the futures bet.
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Also see: Browns at Steelers odds, picks and prediction. Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. If we were to rewind six months or so, I would have had a hard time saying Super Bowl LV would be happening today. The deck was stacked against the NFL… you know, pandemic and all.
Yet, here we are — on schedule — with the biggest sports betting event of the year about to go down and all of us making our Super Bowl 55 predictions. The NFL deserves a round of applause for making everything work with little disruption along the way. One of the most decorated Super Bowl traditions is the extensive and exquisite Super Bowl prop bet menu, which ranges from coin flip results to who will score the last touchdown and everything else in between. The stage is set, the Super Bowl odds are moving around and our Super Bowl prediction is set; now its time to focus on some profitable Super Bowl prop Play our new free daily Pick'em Challenge and win!
Please enter an email address. Something went wrong. Leg 3: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers Sign up and bet at BetMGM. Super Bowl: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds, picks and prediction. January 10, The Super Bowl kicks off at p. ET today, as the From The Web Ads by Zergnet. Share this article share.
Most Popular. More NFL. Email Sign up No, thanks. If you parlay his picks, you could be looking at an payout. You can only see them here. After thoroughly studying the Super Bowl LV line, Hammer is picking the teams to score under 56 points even though these are two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. Kansas City will be without two key offensive linemen against the Buccaneers. The Chiefs are also expected to be without starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz back , a All-Pro and starter in last year's Super Bowl win.
Pierre-Paul is a dynamic pass rusher who recorded two sacks against the Packers in the NFC title game. Barrett also had a big day against Green Bay, recording three sacks in Tampa Bay's victory. Both players recorded a sack in the first meeting against the Chiefs this season. Hammer, who has inside sources throughout the league, also jumped on one team to "exploit a weakness" and cover the Super Bowl spread.
He also loves an epic prop bet you need to see. You can only see his best bets here. And what prop bet is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Hammerin' Hank Goldberg's Super Bowl best bets, all from the legendary handicapper on a heater , and find out. Feb 7, at pm ET 2 min read. Could Wilson be traded?
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